Dissension at the FED

Federal Reserve Building in DC
July 29, 2025 by Matt McCracken

Ever since the advent of the "Greenspan Put", the actions of the Federal Reserve Board, and specifically the FOMC, have always stolen their fair share of headlines.  Recently, the noise surrounding the FED has reached a deafening level as it is speculated that President Trump is proactively seeking to remove Fed Chairman Powell, a wholly unprecedented action.    

But I would argue it is all just posturing.  Trump really doesn't want Powell gone.  By keeping Powell around, he keeps his scapegoat in case the economy goes south.  More importantly, Trump's beratement of Powell is serving to exert pressure on the other voting members of the FOMC.  In total, there will be 12 votes in the room tomorrow as the FOMC meets and only one of those votes belongs to Chairman Jerome Powell.  11 others are free to vote exactly as they see fit.  Historically,  FOMC decisions are agreed to with unanimous consent - at least that is how the minutes are read.  Until recently, it was rare for one or more of the 12 voting members to dissent.  I believe that all changes tomorrow.

Each of the 11 voting members is vying for an appointment as the Fed Chairman, which will be hand-picked by the President next May (Granted, several are Democrats so they are probably not even in the running but I think 5 of the 11 are Republicans).  Of the 12 that vote tomorrow, 4 of them are regional Fed Bank Presidents who will only vote every third meeting.  Thus, these members only have a handful of opportunities to "kiss the ring". 

Each person sitting in the room tomorrow is there because he or she has spent a lifetime politicking and posturing.  No one is appointed to the position they hold because he or she has set a precedent for going rogue.  Trust me, everyone in that room lusts to hold the title of the most powerful person in the world's economy.  And each of them has just a few opportunities to impress upon the President that they are more than willing to do his will.  

Powell will likely finish his term, unless markets go off the rails between now and then, but I believe the final days of his term will be marked by division and dissension.  How will markets react to a divided FOMC, I don't know.  But soon we shall find out.