USD gets curb-stomped after the FED

March 19, 2015 by Matt McCracken

The USD is declining precipitously against marjor trading partners after the FED said something or didn't say something.  Maybe they added a word or took out a word and somehow with a flick of a butterfly's wings, the USD is acting like the US is a banana republic.  (Are we really at the point where a single word changes human history?)  Of course, equities and bonds are up b/c these markets always go up after a FED announcement.  But I'd be wary.  Over the past  three quarters, USD strength has been a tailwind for all securities denominated in USD's.  So if the USD reverses course, it could obviously become a headwind for US based securities.  

We'll be watching to see what happens to the USD over the next couple of days to see if there is follow through on today's action.  Specifically, we'll be watching to see how  the US dollar performs relative to emerging market currencies like the Ruble, Real and Austrailian dollar.  And action in precious metals will certainly be worth following.  Our theory is that these markets will lead the rest of the markets as capital flees QE countries and seeks positive real yields or real assets that cannot be debased in value.