All Blog Posts

Go Speed Racer, Go.
October 14, 2022 by Matt McCracken
After a "historic" turnaround yesterday, where the S&P 500 gained over 5% from its lows, the stock market gave back nearly all those gains today. From top to bottom, the S&P 500 fell 3.6% today. The market volatility has reached asinine...Read more
Go Speed Racer
October 13, 2022 by Matt McCracken
Stock market pundits often quote 8 - 10% as the average annual historical gains in the stock market. Thus, the stock market jumped over half of one's year average annual gains in a single day. That is all.Read more
Alfred E Nueman shrug
September 29, 2022 by Matt McCracken
Over the past few weeks, I have found myself telling concerned clients and friends, "If you ain't scared, you ain't paying attention." The volatility in the stock market has become nauseating. This year, there have been six declines of 10% or more...Read more
Speed racer cartoon
September 7, 2022 by Matt McCracken
Starting with QE in 2010, the stock market started to see a series of incredibly quick V-bottoms. While bottoms were violent affairs in which losses were quickly recovered, tops were gradual, slow-moving events. But that has all changed in this...Read more
Iron Mike Tyson
May 20, 2022 by Matt McCracken
- Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth - Mike Tyson Capital markets are doing their best "Iron Mike" impersonation by punching equities right in the mouth. The S&P 500 has now joined the NASDAQ and long-term US Treasuries in...Read more
desktop bell
May 17, 2022 by Matt McCracken
Our capitulation indicator is finally giving us some buys off the lows from last Thursday. I was surprised that I received so few signals over the past several months but they are finally trickling in. After six straight weeks of decline, it is...Read more
Wheat field
May 16, 2022 by Matt McCracken
Disclosure: We currently own DBA, WEAT, and various wheat futures contracts (ZW and YW) in our client accounts. On the news out of India that they will severely curb wheat exports, prices for wheat on the futures exchanges went "limit up" again...Read more
Woman thinking "Eff this"!
May 9, 2022 by Matt McCracken
There is blood in the streets in capital markets the world over. Bitcoin is down over 20% in less than one week. Long-term US Treasuries are now firmly entrenched in bear market territory. The stock market saw an incredible reversal last week after...Read more
$100 bills
May 4, 2022 by Matt McCracken
Today, the FED raised the overnight borrowing rate by 0.50%, the biggest one-time hike in rates in over 20 years. Conventional wisdom and Economic textbooks tell us that higher rates should lead to stronger demand for a nation's national debt while...Read more
Money growing from coin jars
April 29, 2022 by Matt McCracken
As interest rates are going up, the question many investors are asking is, "How much will my bond holdings, or my bond-oriented mutual fund, depreciate?" As a general rule, for every 1% increase in interest rates, a bond will depreciate its duration...Read more